Murray Darling Basin Outlook: water security for farming must be a focus
27 November 2025, Canberra, ACT: Farmers in the Basin are calling on the Federal Government to escalate water security for agriculture as a priority, following the findings of the Basin Outlook[1], published today which echoed findings from the National Climate Risk Assessment[2].
“All climate change scenarios will have significant risks on water security for Australian agriculture,” said NIC CEO, Zara Lowien “farmers are adapting every day tchanging climate, but can only adapt so far, water security is critical”.
“The Outlook modelling scenarios found the Basin will be both wetter and drier, with more extreme conditions with varying impacts and level of uncertainty around the Basin.”
“It is absolutely important that we consider climate change as part of the Basin Plan Review, but this needs to be fit for purpose, recognising the uncertainty, and extremes to both wet and dry.”
“We are concerned the document has over-generalised headlines, but when you look at the detail, there are a lot of unknowns and uncertainty,” said Ms Lowien. “That’s not to dismiss the work, rather that when Government responds to it, they need to consider its limitations which are very evident in the report.”
The MDBA’s own Advisory Committee on Social, Economic and Environmental Sciences (ACSEES) earlier raised concerns saying:
“Advice was provided on improving the communication of hydroclimate modelling; revisions of the documents to better communicate environmental trends (positive and negative); avoiding over-generalising outcomes across the diverse environments and communities of the Basin; and need to include information on the potential impacts of climate change on water entitlements and allocations.”[3]
“We need to have evidence-based conversations across stakeholders on how we can best enhance water security for all users as much as possible, and how we can best share the risks when the water is simply not available,” said Ms Lowien.
The Outlook identified that ‘allocations of entitlement water are expected to reduce as total average water availability decreases’, recognising the existing systems in place to manage for climate change, and the impacts this has on irrigators and others. This is consistent with the National Climate Risk Assessment released earlier this year also found that ‘changes in water security could significantly impact agriculture’.
“In Australia, we do have systems to manage water-sharing for changing climate, but you can only manage water when it’s there and as we know, sometimes there just isn’t any water,” said Ms Lowien.
“The current water allocation systems only allocates water to irrigation based on a percentage of how much is available, and at the bottom of a hierarchy of users (after towns and the environment), we need to see more analysis of those impacts to farmers water allocations.”
“We share the concerns of the MDBA, if the climate risks extend beyond what can be achieved by just water-sharing, then we need a much bigger conversation looking at many options (like infrastructure), that works towards improved water security around the Basin."
“Australia’s irrigated agriculture sector is worth billions and supplies Australia and our trading partners with food and fibre, including 93% of Aussie fruits and nuts and 83% of our veggies.”
“Failing to protect water security for agriculture is a risk to our economy, Australian food and fibre production, and our national security in a geopolitical uncertain global environment,” said Ms Lowien.
“Water security for all, including agriculture is a critical piece of the climate change puzzle around Australia not just in the Basin, we have a shared responsibility to come together to work through this challenge, and develop solutions,“ said Ms Lowien.
ENDS
Media Contact:
[1] 2025 Murray–Darling Basin Outlook | Murray–Darling Basin Authority
[2] 2025 National Climate Risk Assessment – risks to primary industries and food | Australian Climate Service
[3] Advisory Committee on Social, Economic and Environmental Sciences Communique – October 2025 | Murray–Darling Basin Authority